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India overtakes Japan as the third largest car market

Stakes in India have gone up, especially after the Russia-Ukraine crisis, with brands like Hyundai, Kia, Renault and Nissan seeing growth potential in India.

3 min read•4 Jan '23

Ketan Thakkar

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India has overtaken Japan as the third largest light vehicle market in the world in 2022, led by a strong bounce back in demand for personal mobility and last-mile deliveries, post pandemic.

India crossed production output of 5 million units in 2022
India was the fastest growing market last year

The light vehicle sales include all passenger vehicles, small commercial vehicles and vans up to 6 tonnes. Global forecasting agency S&P Global Mobility had estimated in December 2022 that the Indian light vehicle sales for 2022 would see a growth of over 22 percent, to 4.4 million units, whereas the sales in the Japanese market are expected to slip to 4.2 million units.

Though the final sales numbers for domestic passenger vehicle sales are yet to be announced, India is ahead of Japan, grabbing a podium for the first time. Our sister publication Autocar Professional learns that India closed 2022 with annual sales of 3.8 million units, growing more than 25 percent over Japan, which is understood to have posted a decline in sales by almost 2 lakh units from 2021's volumes of 3.7 million units.

In terms of output, India has retained its position as the fourth largest light vehicle producer with a milestone of over 5 million units for the first time – the official numbers are likely to be published in the coming weeks (see table).

Light Vehicle Production (0-6 tonnes)	Country/Region	CY 2012 (in million)	CY 2022 (in million)	CAGR last 10 years (in percent)
1	Mainland China	18.2	26.1	4
2	United States	10.1	9.8	0
3	Japan	9.4	7.4	-2
4	India	3.8	5.1	3
5	South Korea	4.5	3.7	-2
6	Germany	5.5	3.6	-4
7	Mexico	2.9	3.3	1
8	Brazil	3.2	2.2	-4
9	Spain	1.9	2.1	1
10	Thailand	2.4	1.8	-3

“Despite multiple hiccups in the last decade, demonetisation, the NBFC crisis, regulation jump from BS4 to BS6, implementation of stricter safety norms, COVID-19, semiconductor chip shortage and Ukraine-Russia conflict, India is among the only three markets in top 10 markets, which has posted a growth in the last one decade,” said Gaurav Vangaal, associate director, S&P Global Mobility.

Consecutive double-digit growth for India

India was the fastest growing market in 2022 and no other country posted consecutive strong double-digit growth (over 20 percent) in the world. To be sure, in its earlier press note on November 1, 2022, S&P Global Mobility had already stated that India overtook Japan to become the third largest car market in the second and third quarters of 2022. Calling it a bronze medal position, the note stated that the race for third place was on. So it was almost a given that, with a record festive season, even on a full year basis, India would be ahead.

In spite of major disruptions, the Indian light vehicle market has swelled at a compounded annual growth rate of 3 percent in the last decade while most of the matured markets have registered a flat growth or a negative growth.

Brands see growth potential in India post Russia-Ukraine crisis

India is already the largest market for Suzuki outside of Japan. It also figures in the top 3 markets for Hyundai and Kia and Skoda Auto and was in the top 5 markets for Renault global in 2021. India's stakes have especially gone up post the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

The likes of Hyundai, Kia, Renault, Nissan and Skoda-Volkswagen have all exited Russia and the future growth potential lies in select few markets like India.

Skoda Auto global CEO Klaus Zellmer had previously told Autocar India that a big contribution to fulfilling the brand's global ambitions is coming from India. “We are well on track to more than double our sales in 2022. Our success gives us tremendous confidence for a long-term, sustainable journey in India, which is an integral part of all future strategy planning,” Zellmer said.

The Indian subsidiary of Europe’s largest automaker has committed €1 billion in the coming years as part of its 2.0 plans. Zellmer says Skoda’s current India line-up caters to only about 20 percent of the market, but also that he “aims to more than double that” in the mid-term.

Data Source: S&P Global Mobility.